Carl Zeiss Foundation Research Group on Coevolutionary Human-Earth System Modelling

Carl Zeiss Foundation Research Group on Coevolutionary Human-Earth System Modelling

The Carl Zeiss Foundation Independent Research Group on Coevolutionary Human-Earth System Modelling aims to develop novel approaches for integrated human-Earth system modelling and its methodological and theoretical foundations. These tools are applied to study the intertwined interactions between biophysical processes, such as climate and ecosystem change, and socio-economic and socio-cultural structures and dynamics, such as institutions, norms, social groups and individual behaviours that are shaping planet Earth in the Anthropocene.

The group’s research program is focusing on the following three topical areas:

  1. Fundamental research on integrated human-Earth system modelling,
  2. Non-linear dynamics, tipping points and resilience in the coupled human-Earth system,
  3. Regenerative practices and transformations in the intertwined human-biosphere system.

While the group focuses on developing and applying methods grounded in the fields of Earth system and complex systems science, its scope is deeply inter- and multidisciplinary by necessity. The human-Earth system must be represented in a more realistic way as a complex, adaptive, and constantly changing whole. This brings not only climate processes, but also land use, biodiversity, social learning processes, economic incentives, and technological developments into focus. Our concern is to depict the diverse interactions between human action, economic structures, cultural dynamics, and biophysical processes in modeling.

The models further developed here should enable the connection of very different elements: from global Earth system models to macroeconomic scenarios to approaches from complexity and network theory. On this basis, phenomena such as tipping points, resilience, and collapse risks can be systematically investigated.

Publications

Selected Publications

Janssen, C.; Gorris, P.; Pahl-Wostl, C.; Schwarz, L.: The social-ecological learning framework: perception, action, and learning in a changing world. Global Environmental Change 98, 103159 (2026)
C. Kaandorp, L. Wang-Erlandsson, A. Hattle, C. Folke, F. Gelvez-Gomez, J. Rocha, O. Hartman Davies, G. Daily, J. F. Donges, C. Flores-Santana, E. Galbraith, S. Goldin, E. Jobbágy, P. S. Jørgensen, A. König, E. F. Lambin, S. van der Leeuw, R. Milo, D. Ningrum, M. Nyström, B. Reyers, C. Schill, J. Senneby, M. Taniguchi, H. Österblom
Foregrounding embeddedness in the biosphere: conceptual and practical opportunities
Cell Reports Sustainability; in press
Prawitz, H.; Schwarz, L.; Donges, J.: Modeling social norms in social-ecological systems: a systematic literature review. Environmental Research Letters 21 (4), 043003 (2026)
Rimmert, M., Schwarz, L., Janssen, C., Alvarado Amaro, A. & Donges, J.F.
Accelerating the transition to regenerative agriculture: A participatory modeling framework for analyzing social tipping elements and their interactions in the food and land use system
GAIA; in press
Sieben, L.: An evaluation tool for world-earth models by the Example of copan: LPJmL. Master, 84 pp., Friedrich-Schiller-Universität, Jena (2026)
Bechthold, M.; Barfuss, W.; Butz, A.; Breier, J.; Constantino, S. M.; Heitzig, J.; Schwarz, L.; Vardag, S. N.; Donges, J.: Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model. Earth system dynamics 16 (4), 1365–1390, pp. 1365 - 1390 (2025)
Breier, J.; Schwarz, L.; Prawitz, H.; von Bloh, W.; Müller, C.; Wirth, S. B.; Bechthold, M.; Gerten, D.; Donges, J. F.: copan:LPJmL: a new hybrid modelling framework for dynamic land use and agricultural management. EGUsphere Preprint repository 2025, 4475 (2025)
Galaz, V.; Schewenius, M.; Donges, J.; Fetzer, I.; Zhivkoplias, E.; Barfuss, W.; Delannoy, L.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Gelbrecht, M.; Heitzig, J. et al.; Hentati-Sundberg, J.; Kennedy, C.; Knecht, N.; Lotcheris, R.; Mahecha, M.; Merrie, A.; Montero, D.; McPhearson, T.; Mustafa, A.; Nyström, M.; Purves, D.; Rocha, J. C.; Ryo, M.; van der Salm, C.; Segun, S. T.; Stephenson, A. B.; Tellman, E.; Tobar, F.; Vadrot, A.: AI for a planet under pressure. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Stockholm, Stockholm (2025), 88 pp.
Lenton, T. M., Milkoreit, M., Willcock, S., Abrams, J.F., Armstrong McKay, D.I., Buxton, J.E., Donges, J.F., Loriani, S., Wunderling, N., Alkemade, F., Barrett, M., Constantino, S., Powell, T., Smith, S.R., Boulton, C. A., Pinho, P., Dijkstra, H.A. Pearce-Kelly, P., Roman-Cuesta, R.M., Dennis, D. (eds)
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025.
 University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Schwarz, L.; Breier, J.; Prawitz, H.; Bechthold, M.; von Bloh, W.; Constantino, S. M.; Gerten, D.; Heitzig, J.; Hotz, R.; John, L. et al.; Müller, C.; Rockström, J.; Donges, J.: From farm to planet: the InSEEDS World-Earth Model for simulating transitions to regenerative agriculture. EGUsphere: the EGU interactive community platform 2025, 2025-4079 (2025)
Breier, J., Schwarz, L., Prawitz, H., & Bechthold, M.
copan:LPJmL, an advanced World-Earth modeling framework extending copan:CORE, integrating LPJmL as the Earth system interface for comprehensive social-ecological simulations. (v1.1.9).
Zenodo (2025).
Smith, E. K.; Wiedermann, M.; Donges, J. F.; Heitzig, J.; Winkelmann, R.: A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours: the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern. Earth System Dynamics 16 (2), 16-545, pp. 545 - 564 (2025)

Software Publications

Breier, J., & von Bloh, W.
pycoupler: dynamic model coupling of LPJmL (v1.6.5).
Zenodo (2025).
Breier, J., Schwarz, L., Prawitz, H., Bechthold, M., & Hotz, R

Breier, J., Schwarz, L., Prawitz, H., Bechthold, M., & Hotz, R. (2025). Model of integrated social-ecological resilient land systems (InSEEDS) (v0.2.8).
Zenodo. (2025).
Sieben, L.
copan:eval – Evaluation pipeline for the copan:CORE modelling framework (1.0.0).
Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e.V. (2025).

Projects, Events, and Network

Projects

Co-Organized Conferences and Events

  • European Geosciences General Assembly (EGU) in Vienna
  • Social Simulation Conference (Delft, The Netherlands)
  • Stockholm Food Forum (Stockholm, Sweden)
  • Global Tipping Points Conference (Exeter, UK)
  • Overshoots Conference at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria)

Network

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