Guest Lecture: Antarctica and sea level rise: future predictability and the anthropogenic footprint

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the single largest source of uncertainty in long-term sea level rise, with model ensembles contributing to the most recent IPCC AR6 spanning over 4 metres of projected contribution by 2300. Here, I review recent ice sheet model outputs, showing that near-term ice loss is remarkably predictable: across IPCC AR6 ice sheet models, present-day loss rates scale approximately linearly with mid-century projections, regardless of emission scenario or model complexity. Beyond mid-century, processes that cause accelerating ice loss intensify and this predictability breaks down. Considering historical ice loss, I also present recent modelling advances on a new detection and attribution framework to isolate the anthropogenic footprint in observed Antarctic change, and discuss what this implies for future committed sea level rise.