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VERSION:2.0
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260614T224708Z
UID:https://www.gea.mpg.de/events/45869/227640
DTSTART:20260615T080000Z
DTEND:20260615T090000Z
CLASS:PUBLIC
CREATED:20260601T105033Z
DESCRIPTION:The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the single largest source of uncerta
 inty in long-term sea level rise\, with model ensembles contributing to th
 e most recent IPCC AR6 spanning over 4 metres of projected contribution by
  2300. Here\, I review recent ice sheet model outputs\, showing that near-
 term ice loss is remarkably predictable: across IPCC AR6 ice sheet models\
 , present-day loss rates scale approximately linearly with mid-century pro
 jections\, regardless of emission scenario or model complexity. Beyond mid
 -century\, processes that cause accelerating ice loss intensify and this p
 redictability breaks down. Considering historical ice loss\, I also presen
 t recent modelling advances on a new detection and attribution framework t
 o isolate the anthropogenic footprint in observed Antarctic change\, and d
 iscuss what this implies for future committed sea level rise.\nSpeaker: Fe
 licity McCormack
LAST-MODIFIED:20260602T140429Z
LOCATION:Hybrid\, Room: V14 and Online
ORGANIZER;CN=Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology:mailto:nicola@gea.mpg.
 de
SUMMARY:Guest Lecture: Antarctica and sea level rise: future predictability
  and the anthropogenic footprint
URL;VALUE=URI:https://www.gea.mpg.de/events/45869/227640
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