Integratvie Earth Systems Science Publications

Coulon, V.; Klose, A. K.; Edwards, T.; Turner, F.; Pattyn, F.; Winkelmann, R.: From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature Communications 16 (1), 10385 (2025)

Hirata Sanches, V.; Quiñones, R.; Vivas, J.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Iwanaga, T.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Quinlan, A. E.; Rocha, J. C.; Crépin, A.-S.; Dakos, V. et al.; Donges, J.; Lade, S. J.: Integrating diversity and agency into social-ecological resilience metrics. Ecology and society 30 (4), 51 (2025)

Loriani, S.; Aksenov, Y.; McKay, D. I. A.; Bala, G.; Born, A.; Chiessi, C. M.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Donges, J.; Drijfhout, S.; England, M. H. et al.; Fedorov, A. V.; Jackson, L. C.; Kornhuber, K.; Messori, G.; Pausata, F. S. R.; Rynders, S.; Sallée, J.-B.; Sinha, B.; Sherwood, S. C.; Swingedouw, D.; Tharammal, T.: Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations. Earth System Dynamics 16 (5), 16-1611-2025, pp. 1611 - 1653 (2025)

Bechthold, M.; Barfuss, W.; Butz, A.; Breier, J.; Constantino, S. M.; Heitzig, J.; Schwarz, L.; Vardag, S. N.; Donges, J.: Social norms and groups structure safe operating spaces in renewable resource use in a social-ecological multi-layer network model. Earth system dynamics 16 (4), 1365–1390, pp. 1365 - 1390 (2025)

Abram, N. J.; Purich, A.; England, M. H.; McCormack, F. S.; Strugnell, J. M.; Bergstrom, D. M.; Vance, T. R.; Stål, T.; Wienecke, B.; Heil, P. et al.; Doddridge, E. W.; Sallée, J.-B.; Williams, T. J.; Reading, A. M.; Mackintosh, A.; Reese, R.; Winkelmann, R.; Klose, A. K.; Boyd, P. W.; Chown, S. L.; Robinson, S. A.: Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment. Nature 644 (8077), s41586-025-09349-5, pp. 621 - 633 (2025)

Schwarz, L.; Janssen, C.; Halbe, J.: Pineapple production and visions of regeneration: contrasting Costa Rican (agri)cultural paradigms. Revista Académica Arjé 8 (1), d2fwry34 (2025)

Chandler, D. M.; Langebroek, P. M.; Reese, R.; Albrecht, T.; Garbe, J.; Winkelmann, R.: Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss. Communications Earth & Environment 6, 420 (2025)

Stokes, F. J.; Benites, S.; Ekman, A.; Suruí, U. A.; Furquim, L.; Winkelmann, R.; Renn, J.; Roberts, P.: Tropical deforestation and Indigenous resistance over the longue durée in South America. Journal of global history, S1740022825000051 (2025)

Schlüter, M.; Wijermans, N.; González-Mon, B.; Lindkvist, E.; Orach, K.; Prawitz, H.; Martin, R.; Martínez-Peña, R.; Pellowe, K. E.; Sanga, U.: Navigating the space between empirics and theory: empirically stylized modelling for theorising social-ecological phenomena. Environmental Modelling and Software 189, 106444, pp. 1 - 14 (2025)

Loriani, S.; Bartsch, A.; Calamita, E.; Donges, J. F.; Hebden, S.; Hirota, M.; Landolfi, A.; Nagler, T.; Sakschewski, B.; Staal, A. et al.; Verbesselt, J.; Winkelmann, R.; Wood, R.; Wunderling, N.: Monitoring the multiple stages of climate tipping systems from space: Do the GCOS essential climate variables meet the needs? Surveys in Geophysics 46 (2), s10712-024-09866-4, pp. 327 - 374 (2025)

Carleton, W. C.; Elton, H.; Miranda, W.; Work, I.; Safarik, D.; Winkelmann, R.; Laubichler, M. D.; Renn, J.; Roberts, P.: Parallel scaling of elite wealth in ancient Roman and modern cities with implications for understanding urban inequality. Nature cities, s44284-025-00213-1 (2025)

Kreuzer, M.; Albrecht, T.; Nicola, L.; Reese, R.; Winkelmann, R.: Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica. The Cryosphere 19 (3), 19-1181-2025, pp. 1181 - 1203 (2025)

Nicola, L.; Reese, R.; Kreuzer, M.; Albrecht, T.; Winkelmann, R.: Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica. The Cryosphere 19 (6), 19-2263-2025, pp. 2263 - 2287 (2025)

Roberts, P.; Los, S.; Carleton, W. C.; Winkelmann, R.; Maezumi, S. Y.: ‘Wildland-urban interfaces’ from an archaeological perspective. Journal of urban archaeology 11, 150272, pp. 141 - 154 (2025)

Smith, E. K.; Wiedermann, M.; Donges, J. F.; Heitzig, J.; Winkelmann, R.: A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours: the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern. Earth System Dynamics 16 (2), 16-545, pp. 545 - 564 (2025)

Los, S.; Winkelmann, R.; Roberts, P.: Exploring tropical forest aboveground carbon dynamics via modelled landscapes of varied food production, past and present. Plants, people, planet, 10608 (2024)

Rosser, J. P.; Winkelmann, R.; Wunderling, N.: Polar ice sheets are decisive contributors to uncertainty in climate tipping projections. Communications Earth & Environment 5 (1), 702 (2024)

Zuccarelli Freire, V.; Ziegler, M.; Caetano Andrade, V.; Iminjili, V.; Lellau, R.; Stokes, F. J.; Rudd, R.; Heberle Viegas, D.; Maezumi, S. Y.; Jha, G. et al.; Antonosyan, M.; Jha, D.; Winkelmann, R.; Roberts, P.; Furquim, L.: Addressing the Anthropocene from the Global South: integrating paleoecology, archaeology and traditional knowledge for COP engagement. Frontiers in Earth Science 12, 1470577 (2024)

Klose, A. K.; Coulon, V.; Pattyn, F.; Winkelmann, R.: The long-term sea-level commitment from Antarctica. The Cryosphere 18 (9), 18-4463-2024, pp. 4463 - 4492 (2024)

Klose, A. K.; Donges, J. F.; Feudel, U.; Winkelmann, R.: Rate-induced tipping cascades arising from interactions between the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Earth System Dynamics 15 (3), 5-635-2024, pp. 635 - 652 (2024)