Director Ricarda Winkelmann
As Founding Director at the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Ricarda Winkelmann is dedicated to advancing the understanding of the intertwined human–Earth system and its possible future trajectories. Her work combines analytical and numerical modelling with field-based insights and integrative approaches, bridging climate physics, complex systems theory, and Earth system science.
Ricarda’s research has made fundamental contributions to understanding the complex dynamics of the Earth system, including the stability of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, past and future sea-level change, ecosystem resilience, and tipping dynamics. She is widely recognised for her work on non-linear processes and critical thresholds in the Earth system and has been named among the world’s most highly cited researchers (Clarivate, 2025).
A pioneer in ice-sheet modelling, Ricarda co-developed the open-source Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) and has played a leading role in advancing next-generation tools for analyzing cascading risks, including pycascades and TOAD. She also initiated and leads the Tipping Points Modelling Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP). Complementing her modelling work, Ricarda has participated in multiple scientific expeditions, including in the Andes and Antarctica. These field campaigns provide critical empirical grounding for her research and reflect her commitment to integrating theoretical and numerical modelling with observational approaches.
Ricarda’s scientific contributions have been recognised through numerous awards, including the Young Scientist of the Year Award by the Academics & ZEIT Publishing Group, the E-Learning Award UP for innovative teaching approaches, the Outstanding Early Career Scientists Award by the EGU Cryospheric Division, and the Karl-Scheel-Prize of the German Physical Society. She is a member of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities, and serves as a lead author of the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report.
In addition to her research, Ricarda is an active science communicator and policy advisor. She regularly contributes to international assessment processes and science-policy dialogues, including Science7 statements, COPs, and briefings for the European Parliament, helping to translate scientific insights into actionable knowledge for decision-makers and the broader public.
Publications
Journal Article (93)
1.
Journal Article
Gabriele Hegerl, Sabina Abba Omar, Alaa Al Khourdajie, Annett Bartsch, Victor Brovkin, Florence Colleoni, Thomas Lukas Frölicher, Torben Koenigk, Hannah M Liddy, Laibao Liu, Jonathan D Moyer, Tim Naish, Bette L Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Lina Teckentrup, Narelle van der Wel, Ricarda Winkelmann, Peter Abbott, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nerilie J Abram, Elijah A Adefisan, Peter Alexander, Peter Ashwin, Sebastian Bathiany, Richard Betts, Pascale Braconnot, Raymond S. Bradley, William Cheung, Cristiano Mazur Chiessi, Robert M DeConto, Kristie L Ebi, Tamsin Edwards, Pierre Friedlingstein, Franziska Gaupp, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Benjamin Gwinneth, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Petra Heil, Marina Hirota, Gustaf Hugelius, Bila-Isia Inogwabini, Colin Jones, Michio Kawamiya, Ann K Klose, Robert E Kopp, Robin Davies Lamboll, Petra Langebroek, David Montenegro Lapola Lapola, Judy Lawrence, David M Lawrence, Timothy M. Lenton, William H. Lipscomb, Valerio Lucarini, Mason Majszak, Jochem Marotzke, Ben Marzeion, Fabien Maussion, Katrina Macneill, Walter N. Meier, Mathieu Morlighem, Lars Peter Nieradzik, Jan Nitzbon, Sophie Nowicki, Inès Natsuki Otosaka, Minal Pathak, Regina R Rodrigues, Joyashree Roy, Christina Schaedel, Lilian Schuster, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Helene Seroussi, Steven Sherwood, Martin J. Siegert, Juan Pablo Sierra, Alessandro Silvano, Arie Staal, Thomas F. Stocker, Didier Swingedouw, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Lauren Vargo, Jonathan D. Wille, Shuting Yang, Harry Zekollari, and Caroline Zimm, "High-impact climate events and tipping dynamics: assessing scientific understanding and future challenges," ESS Open Archive , 15008733 (2026).
2.
Journal Article
Johan Rockström, Fatima Denton, Albert V. Norstrom, Jesse F Abrams, Lubna Alam, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Chris A. Boulton, Wendy Broadgate, Stuart Bunn, Joshua E Buxton, Juan Cardenas, Raimon C. Ylla-Català, Fabrice Declerck, Natalie Davis, Donovan P. Dennis, Miriam L. Diamond, Carl Folke, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Georgia Graells, Joyeeta Gupta, Syezlin Hasan, Lisa Jacobson, Steven J. Lade, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Cornelia Ludwig, Pablo A Marquet, Qondi Moyo, Aditi Mukherji, Nebjosa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Oki Taikan, Daniel Ospina, Maria Fernanda Peña, Laura Pereira, Keywan Riahi, Maria del Mar Rojas, Anindita Sarkar, Anna Shalin, Ben Stewart-Koster, Bo Su, Rashid Sumaila, Tharammal Thejna, Luc van Vliet, Detlef vanVuuren, Peter H. Verburg, Zhanyun Wang, Ricarda Winkelmann, Cunde Xiao, and Caroline Zimm, "Charting a transformational course toward a safe and just future: the Earth Commission’s contribution," ESS Open Archive , 175492980.08779908/v1 (2026).
3.
Journal Article
Laura M. Pereira, Matthew Ford Gibson, Jesse F. Abrams, Elina Brutschin, Juan Camilo Cardenas, William W.L. Cheung, Joachim Claudet, Sarah E. Cornell, Vassilis Daioglou, América Paz Durán, Erik Gomez-Baggethun, Paula A. Harrison, Sophie Hebden, Justin A. Johnson, Jean-Baptiste Jouffray, Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Patrick W. Keys, HyeJin Kim, Marcel T.J. Kok, Carolyn J. Lundquist, Timothy M. Lenton, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Pamela McElwee, Claudia Munera-Roldan, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Albert V. Norström, Maganizo K. Nyasulu, Garry D. Peterson, Patricia Pinho, Alexander Popp, Keywan Riahi, U. Rashid Sumaila, Arne Tobian, Ricarda Winkelmann, Nico Wunderling, Detlef van Vuuren, Joost Vervoort, and Caroline Zimm, "Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios," One Earth 9 (5), 101710 (2026).
4.
Journal Article
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, Willem Huiskamp, Stefan Petri, Johannes Feldmann, Georg Feulner, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Antarctic meltwater-stratification feedback is less pronounced under high climate forcing," Geophysical Research Letters 53 (8), 1-11 (2026).
5.
Journal Article
Helen Werner, Dirk Scherler, Tancrède P. M. Leger, Guillaume Jouvet, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Impact of spatial resolution on large-scale ice cover modelling of mountainous regions," The Cryosphere 20 (4), 2469-2484 (2026).
6.
Journal Article
Ricarda Winkelmann, Julius Garbe, Jonathan Donges, and Torsten Albrecht, "Mapping tipping risks from Antarctic ice basins under global warming," Nature Climate Change , s41558-025-02554-0 (2026).
7.
Journal Article
Colin Jones, Isaline Bossert, Donovan P. Dennis, Hazel Jeffery, Chris D. Jones, Torben Koenigk, Sina Loriani, Benjamin Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Manabu Abe, Sebastian Bathiany, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Patrica Cadule, Frederic S. Castruccio, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Andrea Dittus, Jonathan F. Donges, Friederike Fröb, Thomas Frölicher, Goran Georgievski, Chuncheng Guo, Aixue Hu, Peter Lawrence, Paul Lerner, José Licón-Saláiz, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Anastasia Romanou, Elena Shevliakova, Yona Silvy, Didier Swingedouw, Jerry Tjiputra, Jeremy Walton, Andy Wiltshire, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, Tokuta Yokohata, and Tilo Ziehn, "The TIPMIP Earth system model experiment protocol: phase 1," Geoscientific Model Development 19 (14), 6941-6966 (2026).
8.
Journal Article
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications 16 (1), 10385 (2025).
9.
Journal Article
Nerilie J. Abram, Ariaan Purich, Matthew H. England, Felicity S. McCormack, Jan M. Strugnell, Dana M. Bergstrom, Tessa R. Vance, Tobias Stål, Barbara Wienecke, Petra Heil, Edward W. Doddridge, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Thomas J. Williams, Anya M. Reading, Andrew Mackintosh, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, Ann Kristin Klose, Philip W. Boyd, Steven L. Chown, and Sharon A. Robinson, "Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment," Nature 644 (8077), 621-633 (2025).
10.
Journal Article
Freg J. Stokes, Sandra Benites, Anita Ekman, Uraan Anderson Suruí, Laura Furquim, Ricarda Winkelmann, Jürgen Renn, and Patrick Roberts, "Tropical deforestation and Indigenous resistance over the longue durée in South America," Journal of global history 20 (2), 121-142 (2025).
Book Chapter (7)
1.
Book Chapter
Chris A. Boulton, Patricia Pinho, Avit Bhowmik, Sara Constantino, Bernardo M. Flores, Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Isobel Parry, Tom Powell, José A. Sanabria-Fernández, Viktoria Spaiser, Sebastian Villasante, Nico Wunderling, Henk Dijkstra, Didier Swingedouw, Caroline Katsman, Sybren Drijfhout, Amber Boot, Viktoria Spaiser, Yevgeny Aksenov, Manjana Milkoreit, Jesse F. Abrams, Marius Årthun, Andreas Born, Sara Constantino, Matthew England, Timothy M. Lenton, Valentin Portmann, Paul Ritchie, Stefanie Rynders, Bablu Sinha, Sebastian Villasante, René van Westen, Claudia Wieners, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Chris Yesson, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Melina Soto, Jesus Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, Kyle Morgan, Alina Bill-Weilandt, Björn Kjerfve, Christopher E. Cornwall, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Manjana Milkoreit, Tim E. Lenton, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Donovan P. Dennis, Bethan Joan Davies, Shivani Ehrenfeucht, Jeremy C. Ely, Lindsey Nicholson, Annika Ord, Judith Dax̱ootsú Ramos, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Case studies: key messages", in Global tipping points report 2025, edited by Timothy M. Lenton, Manjana Milkoreit, Simon Willcock, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Joshua E. Buxton, Jonathan Donges, Sina Loriani, Nico Wunderling, Floor Alkemade, Mike Barrett, Sara Constantino, Tom Powell, Steven R. Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Donovan Dennis, Henk Dijkstra, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Patricia Pinho, and Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta (University of Exeter, Exeter, 2025), pp. 39-44.
2.
Book Chapter
Donovan P. Dennis, Bethan Joan Davies, Shivani Ehrenfeucht, Jeremy C. Ely, Lindsey Nicholson, Annika Ord, Judith Dax̱ootsú Ramos, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Mountain glaciers: Áakʼw Tʼáak Sítʼ (Mendenhall Glacier)", in Global tipping points report 2025, edited by Timothy M. Lenton, Manjana Milkoreit, Simon Willcock, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Joshua E. Buxton, Jonathan Donges, Sina Loriani, Nico Wunderling, Floor Alkemade, Mike Barrett, Sara Constantino, Tom Powell, Steven R. Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Donovan Dennis, Henk Dijkstra, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Patricia Pinho, and Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta (University of Exeter, Exeter, 2025), pp. 268-280.
3.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann, "Eisschilde, Schelfeis und Gletscher", in Das Klima-Buch, (S. Fischer, Frankfurt am Main, 2022), pp. 79-81.
4.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann, "Ice Sheets, Shelves and Glaciers", in The climate book, (S. Fischer, Frankfurt am Main, 2022), pp. 79-81.
5.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann and R. Reese, "Antarctica", in Who invented One and Zero?: a communal history of Mathematics, edited by H. Sachs and K. Clante (Humboldt Books, Milan, 2018).
6.
Book Chapter
A. B. A. Slangen, F. Adloff, S. Jevrejeva, P. W. Leclercq, B. Marzeion, Y. Wada, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "A review of recent updates of sea-level projections at global and regional scales", in Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components, edited by Anny Cazenave, Nicolas Champollion, Frank Paul, and Jérôme Benveniste (Springer, Cham, 2017), pp. 395-416.
7.
Book Chapter
John A. Church, Peter U. Clark, Anny Cazenave, Jonathan M. Gregory, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Anders Levermann, Mark A. Merrifield, Glenn A. Milne, R. Steven Nerem, Patrick D. Nunn, Antony J. Payne, W. Tad Pfeffer, Detlef Stammer, and Alakkat S. Unnikrishnan, "Sea level change", in Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis Working Group I ; contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Thomas F. Stocker, Dahe Qin, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Melinda M. B. Tignor, Simon K. Allen, Judith Boschung, Alexander Nauels, Yu Xia, Vincent Bex, Pauline M. Midgley, and (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2013), pp. 1137-1216.