Director Ricarda Winkelmann

Prof. Dr. Ricarda Winkelmann is Founding Director at the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, specializing in the fields of climate physics, mathematics and Earth system science. Her research has made significant contributions to our understanding of the complex dynamics of the Earth System, including Greenland and Antarctic ice dynamics, past and future sea-level change, ecosystem resilience and tipping dynamics.

In the Department ‘Integrative Earth System Science’, Ricarda Winkelmann, together with her team, develops novel approaches to investigate the dynamics of the intertwined human-Earth system, providing fundamental insights into Earth system boundaries, critical thresholds, feedback loops and potential intervention points to help navigate the multiple crises and challenges facing us in the Anthropocene.

Ricarda Winkelmann is a member of the Earth Commission, and Professor of Climate System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and University of Potsdam. She initiated and leads the Tipping Point Modeling Intercomparison Project TIPMIP. Next to her analytical and numerical modeling work, she has been involved in several scientific expeditions to Antarctica and the Andes, including the ‘Expedition Anthropocene’ by the German Young Academy at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina.

In recognition of her work, Ricarda Winkelmann has received numerous awards, including the Young Scientist of the Year award by Academics and ZEIT Publishing Group, the E-Learning Award UP for innovative teaching approaches, the Outstanding Early Career Scientists Award by the Cryospheric Division of the European Geosciences Union, and the Karl-Scheel-Prize by the German Physical Society.

Ricarda Winkelmann is a passionate science communicator and seeks to make research accessible to the public through a broad range of channels.

Publications

Journal Article (86)

1.
Journal Article
Violaine Coulon, Ann Kristin Klose, Tamsin Edwards, Fiona Turner, Frank Pattyn, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "From short-term uncertainties to long-term certainties in the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature Communications 16 (1), 10385 (2025).
2.
Journal Article
Nerilie J. Abram, Ariaan Purich, Matthew H. England, Felicity S. McCormack, Jan M. Strugnell, Dana M. Bergstrom, Tessa R. Vance, Tobias Stål, Barbara Wienecke, Petra Heil, Edward W. Doddridge, Jean-Baptiste Sallée, Thomas J. Williams, Anya M. Reading, Andrew Mackintosh, Ronja Reese, Ricarda Winkelmann, Ann Kristin Klose, Philip W. Boyd, Steven L. Chown, and Sharon A. Robinson, "Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment," Nature 644 (8077), 621-633 (2025).
3.
Journal Article
David M. Chandler, Petra M. Langebroek, Ronja Reese, Torsten Albrecht, Julius Garbe, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss," Communications Earth & Environment 6, 420 (2025).
4.
Journal Article
Freg J. Stokes, Sandra Benites, Anita Ekman, Uraan Anderson Suruí, Laura Furquim, Ricarda Winkelmann, Jürgen Renn, and Patrick Roberts, "Tropical deforestation and Indigenous resistance over the longue durée in South America," Journal of global history , S1740022825000051 (2025).
5.
Journal Article
Sina Loriani, Annett Bartsch, Elisa Calamita, Jonathan F. Donges, Sophie Hebden, M. Hirota, Angela Landolfi, Thomas Nagler, Boris Sakschewski, Arie Staal, Jan Verbesselt, Ricarda Winkelmann, Richard Wood, and Nico Wunderling, "Monitoring the multiple stages of climate tipping systems from space: Do the GCOS essential climate variables meet the needs?," Surveys in Geophysics 46 (2), 327-374 (2025).
6.
Journal Article
W. Christopher Carleton, Hugh Elton, Will Miranda, Isaac Work, Daniel Safarik, Ricarda Winkelmann, Manfred Dietrich Laubichler, Jürgen Renn, and Patrick Roberts, "Parallel scaling of elite wealth in ancient Roman and modern cities with implications for understanding urban inequality," Nature cities , s44284-025-00213-1 (2025).
7.
Journal Article
Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, L. Nicola, R. Reese, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Bathymetry-constrained impact of relative sea-level change on basal melting in Antarctica," The Cryosphere 19 (3), 1181-1203 (2025).
8.
Journal Article
Lina Nicola, Ronja Reese, Moritz Kreuzer, Torsten Albrecht, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Bathymetry-constrained warm-mode melt estimates derived from analysing oceanic gateways in Antarctica," The Cryosphere 19 (6), 2263-2287 (2025).
9.
Journal Article
Patrick Roberts, Sebastian Los, W. Christopher Carleton, Ricarda Winkelmann, and Shira Yoshimi Maezumi, "‘Wildland-urban interfaces’ from an archaeological perspective," Journal of urban archaeology 11, 141-154 (2025).
10.
Journal Article
E. Keith Smith, Marc Wiedermann, Jonathan F. Donges, J. Heitzig, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "A global threshold model of enabling conditions for social tipping in pro-environmental behaviours: the role of sea level rise anticipation and climate change concern," Earth System Dynamics 16 (2), 545-564 (2025).
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Book Chapter (7)

1.
Book Chapter
Chris A. Boulton, Patricia Pinho, Avit Bhowmik, Sara Constantino, Bernardo M. Flores, Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Isobel Parry, Tom Powell, José A. Sanabria-Fernández, Viktoria Spaiser, Sebastian Villasante, Nico Wunderling, Henk Dijkstra, Didier Swingedouw, Caroline Katsman, Sybren Drijfhout, Amber Boot, Viktoria Spaiser, Yevgeny Aksenov, Manjana Milkoreit, Jesse F. Abrams, Marius Årthun, Andreas Born, Sara Constantino, Matthew England, Timothy M. Lenton, Valentin Portmann, Paul Ritchie, Stefanie Rynders, Bablu Sinha, Sebastian Villasante, René van Westen, Claudia Wieners, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Chris Yesson, Melanie McField, Aarón Israel Muñiz-Castillo, Melina Soto, Jesus Ernesto Arias-Gonzalez, Kyle Morgan, Alina Bill-Weilandt, Björn Kjerfve, Christopher E. Cornwall, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Manjana Milkoreit, Tim E. Lenton, Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta, Donovan P. Dennis, Bethan Joan Davies, Shivani Ehrenfeucht, Jeremy C. Ely, Lindsey Nicholson, Annika Ord, Judith Dax̱ootsú Ramos, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Case studies: key messages", in Global tipping points report 2025, edited by Timothy M. Lenton, Manjana Milkoreit, Simon Willcock, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Joshua E. Buxton, Jonathan Donges, Sina Loriani, Nico Wunderling, Floor Alkemade, Mike Barrett, Sara Constantino, Tom Powell, Steven R. Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Donovan Dennis, Henk Dijkstra, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Patricia Pinho, and Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta (University of Exeter, Exeter, 2025), pp. 39-44.
2.
Book Chapter
Donovan P. Dennis, Bethan Joan Davies, Shivani Ehrenfeucht, Jeremy C. Ely, Lindsey Nicholson, Annika Ord, Judith Dax̱ootsú Ramos, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "Mountain glaciers: Áakʼw Tʼáak Sítʼ (Mendenhall Glacier)", in Global tipping points report 2025, edited by Timothy M. Lenton, Manjana Milkoreit, Simon Willcock, Jesse F. Abrams, David I. Armstrong McKay, Joshua E. Buxton, Jonathan Donges, Sina Loriani, Nico Wunderling, Floor Alkemade, Mike Barrett, Sara Constantino, Tom Powell, Steven R. Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Donovan Dennis, Henk Dijkstra, Paul Pearce-Kelly, Patricia Pinho, and Rosa M. Roman-Cuesta (University of Exeter, Exeter, 2025), pp. 268-280.
3.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann, "Eisschilde, Schelfeis und Gletscher", in Das Klima-Buch, (S. Fischer, Frankfurt am Main, 2022), pp. 79-81.
4.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann, "Ice Sheets, Shelves and Glaciers", in The climate book, (S. Fischer, Frankfurt am Main, 2022), pp. 79-81.
5.
Book Chapter
Ricarda Winkelmann and R. Reese, "Antarctica", in Who invented One and Zero?: a communal history of Mathematics, edited by H. Sachs and K. Clante (Humboldt Books, Milan, 2018).
6.
Book Chapter
A. B. A. Slangen, F. Adloff, S. Jevrejeva, P. W. Leclercq, B. Marzeion, Y. Wada, and Ricarda Winkelmann, "A review of recent updates of sea-level projections at global and regional scales", in Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components, edited by Anny Cazenave, Nicolas Champollion, Frank Paul, and Jérôme Benveniste (Springer, Cham, 2017), pp. 395-416.
7.
Book Chapter
John A. Church, Peter U. Clark, Anny Cazenave, Jonathan M. Gregory, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Anders Levermann, Mark A. Merrifield, Glenn A. Milne, R. Steven Nerem, Patrick D. Nunn, Antony J. Payne, W. Tad Pfeffer, Detlef Stammer, and Alakkat S. Unnikrishnan, "Sea level change", in Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis Working Group I ; contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Thomas F. Stocker, Dahe Qin, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Melinda M. B. Tignor, Simon K. Allen, Judith Boschung, Alexander Nauels, Yu Xia, Vincent Bex, Pauline M. Midgley, and (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2013), pp. 1137-1216.
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